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网传OTC要关闭,徐明星注销OKCOIN,行情目前依然是反弹,不是反转

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比特币市场网传OTC要关闭,徐明星注销OKCOIN,行情目前依然是反弹,不是反转这两天有个人心惶惶的消息在传播,就是OTC要关闭。

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OTC是什么以及它的作用,大家应该都清楚,进入币圈的第一道门槛就是OTC,有了OTC我们才能将法币换成虚拟货币。

如果OTC关闭了,这无异于共工撞倒不周山,从此断了天上和人间的纽带,国内资金想入市就没有了渠道。

这里特意找了两家交易所,看看其OTC业务运行是否正常。

首先是bibox,现在无论是USDT还是BTC、ETH,都显示商家休息中,也就是暂时无法把数字货币卖成法币了。

卖不出去,那买入呢?bibox的快速买入页面显示ETH和BTC也是商家休息中,只有USDT还可以买入。

bibox的OTC业务是和LinkCoin合作的,尝试登陆www.linkcoin.pro,页面己打不开,目前不知道LinkCoin是不是受了政策影响,但从bibox看,这个交易平台出入金通道已不那么顺畅了。

接下来又看了下虎符交易所,虎符的OTC业务并未受到影响,买卖都是可以的。

当然关闭OTC这个消息只是风传,大家也不用太恐慌,不过国内监管越来越严是不争的事实。未来一段时间内,和虚拟货币相关的公司都面临着被清理的风险。

徐明星是被请去喝过咖啡的人,他对政策的反应也是最迅速的,他正在申请注销国内的OKCoin公司,这个OKCoin是北京乐酷内网络科技有限公司,应该是OKEX迁到海外前的国内主体,现在把OKCoin注销掉,徐明星是要剪掉OKEX和国内的所有关联,不再是法人后,就没有被请去喝咖啡的风险了。

怎么正确看待监管

我们知道,各国政府绝大多数对虚拟货币的态度一直不是公开欢迎的,多是倾向于监管,这种态度的原因是什么?而在数字化建设中,区块链技术又是数字化的主力军,各国又在大力推动区块链技术,为何对这两者的态度大相经庭呢?

很多人搞不清到底是怎么回事,我们要知道各国都在扶持区块链技术,区块链是虚拟货币的底层技术,国家反对的是虚拟货币交易炒作,但不是区块链技术。因为虚拟货币对于国家来讲有两大原罪。

一是脱离法币体系自建货币机制,这是在挑战国家信用,是一个主权国家所不能容忍的,所以我国也只是把虚拟货币定义成虚拟商品,如果它危胁到了法币地位,那一定是无情的封杀,更何况各国也在发行以国家信用为担保的数字货币。

二是虚拟货币是暴炒、传销、涉黑、洗钱的温床,虚拟货币的自由属性,一方面是伟大的创新,一方面也被不法份子所利用,很多见不得阳光的交易,如贩毒、贩卖武器等都乐于使用比特币等虚拟货币,这是国家不能容忍的。暴炒虚拟货币也给金融体系带来不稳定性,从维护金融体系稳定、确保人民群众财产安全角度,国家一定会加大对虚拟货币的监管。

再来看看两则消息

(一)“6月28日讯,据CME“美联储观察”:美联储9月维持利率在0%-0.25%区间的概率为96.7%,加息25个基点至0.25%-0.50%区间的概率为3.3%;11月维持利率在0%-0.25%区间的概率为0%,加息100-125个基点的概率为0.6%,加息125-150个基点的概率为96.1%,加息150-175个基点的概率为3.3%。”

(二)“交银国际发布报告,LPR连续14个月维持不变。由于其报价与MLF利率直接挂钩,市场将MLF利率视为LPR报价的风向标。15日,央行开展MLF操作2000亿元人民币,中标利率持平2.95%,为到期规模的等额续做,因此市场普遍对6月LPR保持稳定有较强预期。银行间流动性整体平稳。上周公开市场实现净投放500亿元。24日,央行单日开展300亿元逆回购操作,是3月1号以来操作量首次改变。由于本月资金面受到地方政府专项债、财政税收等因素的扰动,央行增量投放,以维护年中流动性平稳。”

估计两则消息的解读都有些难度,翻译一下第一则消息是美联储有望11月就开始加息,这就是我们之前提醒大家要注意美联储嘴巴上的动作和身体上的动作的差别,不要被敌人迷惑了,做出了不清楚的操作。

第二则消息很简单“LPR连续14个月不变 流动性边际趋紧”,中美两国都做出了同样的动作,货币流动性收紧的预期,市场的反弹是机会还是风险?我想这一点已经很清楚了。

目前这个走势可以博一些反弹,但是要明确这是一个反弹,不是反转,市场没有反转的机会,短期之内不会有什么牛市,这就是一个结构型熊市,这一点大家必须明确。

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